Fears of hard landing
发布时间：2023-09-07 23:07:00
China’seconomyFearsofahardlandingChinaranamassivetradedeficitinFebruary.Whatdoesitsayabouttheeconomy?Mar17th2012|BEIJING|fromtheprinteditionCHINAisroutinelyaccusedofexportingtoomuch.Itsforeignsalesfarexceeditsforeignpurchases,oftenbyawidemargin.Thischronicsurplusangersmany.ThisweekPresidentBarackObamasignedabillthatrestoreshisadministration’spowertoimposetariffsoncountrieslikeChinaandVietnam,whentheirgoodsarereckonedtobesubsidisedordumpedonAmericanmarkets.ThebillpassedswiftlythroughbothchambersofCongress.WhenitcomestorebuffingChina’sexports,America’sfractiouslegislatureisasharmoniousastheChineseone.Butthismonthbroughttwointriguingbreakstotheroutine.OnMarch13ththreeofChina’sbiggesttradingpartners—Japan,theEuropeanUnionandAmerica—complainedthatChinawasexportingtoolittle,nottoomuch.TheybroughtacaseattheWorldTradeOrganisationallegingthatChinawasunfairlyrestrictingitsexportsoftungsten,molybdenumand17“rareearths”,obscureelementssuchasterbiumandeuropium,usedinthemanufactureofmanyhigh-techgoodsincludingfluorescentlights.China’sreactionwasincandescent;itdismissedthecaseas“groundless”.TheothernoveltyarrivedafewdaysearlierwhenChina’scustomsbureaureportedsomethingrarerthaneuropium:aChinesetradedeficit.At$31.5billioninFebruary,theimbalancewasbiggerthananydeficitonrecord—itwasbiggereventhanmanyofChina’smonthlysurpluses.China’stradebalanceoftendipsaroundChineseNewYear,asexportfactoriescloseforthefestival.Theholidayalsoarrivedearlierthisyearthanlast,distortingthedata.ButevenifthefiguresforJanuaryandFebruaryareaddedtogether,Chinaranadeficitofover$4billion.ExportsandimportstypicallyreboundinsyncasChinagetsbacktowork.Thisyear,importsreboundedalone(seechart1.Thedeficithasfuelledonefearandonehope.ThefearisthatChina’seconomywillslowsharply,hobbledbydecliningexportstocrisis-rackedEuropeandarisingbillforcommoditieslikeoil.ThehopeisthatChinaisrebalancing,movingawayfromaneconomicmodelreliantonforeigndemand.Neitherthehopenorthefeariswhollyjustifiedbythismonth’sfigures.
ItistruethatChina’sweakexportsarecontributingtoaslowdowninthebroadereconomy.China’sindustrialproductiongrewby11.4%inJanuaryandFebruary,comparedwiththesametwomonthsin2010,muchslowerthanitsnormalpaceofabout15%.Buttheprospectsforglobalgrowtharebrightening,suggestingthatChina’sexportshavebottomedout.AndtheslowdowninChina’seconomyhasbeenmatchedbyahelpfulfallininflation.ThatgivesChina’sgovernmentsomescopetostimulatedemand.Whataboutrebalancing?February’stradedeficitmaybeananomalybutithighlightsabroadertrend:theswiftdeclineinChina’sexternalimbalance.China’scurrent-accountsurplus,abroadmeasureofthecountry’sexternalpaymentsandreceiptsforgoodsandservices,fellto2.8%ofGDPlastyearfroma 